Yuan ends lower as PBOC signals two-way trading, displeasure with U.S.
* Traders believe widening trading band may be on agenda* Widening trading band may help ward off yuan criticism* Yuan at 6.3820, up 3.25 pct so far this yearBy Lu Jianxin and Jacqueline WongSHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The yuan closed lower on
Thursday after China’s central bank set a sharply weaker
mid-point which traders said signalled two-way trading as well
as displeasure with the U.S. Senate’s approval of a bill
pressing it for greater yuan appreciation.China was not expected to let the yuan pull back too much
after the currency’s 3-plus percent appreciation against the
dollar this year.While the government will resist U.S. pressure, traders say
it is not likely to let the relationship deteriorate in a
currency or trade war where both sides only stand to lose.Instead, the People’s Bank of China appears to be using the
occasion to test the waters for a possible widening of the
yuan/dollar trading band by permitting the yuan to hit the lower
end of its daily trading limit many times since last September.Letting the yuan fluctuate in a wider range could help ward
off criticism that the exchange rate system is too rigidly
managed.In the event that China’s foreign trade encounters problems,
a wider trading range will also enable the PBOC to let the yuan
depreciate, traders said.”Given its dominance in China’s domestic market, the PBOC
could easily check the yuan’s recent volatility but it has not
done that,” said a trader at a U.S. bank in Shanghai.”So the central bank is probably testing waters for a wider
yuan/dollar trading range. Such a widening is good for China
under the current unstable global economic conditions.”Spot yuan closed at 6.3820 from Wednesday’s close
of 3.3585. It has still appreciated 3.25 percent since the start
of this year and 6.96 percent since it was depegged from the
dollar in June 2010.The PBOC set its mid-point against the dollar weaker at
6.3737 compared with Wednesday’s 6.3598. The central bank uses
the reference rate, from which the dollar/yuan exchange rate may
rise or fall 0.5 percent each day, to signal the government’s
intentions for the yuan.TRADER SURPLUS NARROWSThe U.S. Senate approved a controversial bill on Tuesday
aimed at forcing Beijing to push the yuan higher against the
dollar, which supporters argue would reduce a U.S. trade deficit
with China of more than $250 billion.Although the fate of the bill is uncertain, it has drawn
sharp rebukes from Beijing. The central bank argued that a
stronger yuan would not on its own reduce the bilateral trade
imbalance nor save American jobs.Offering China ammunition to resist U.S. pressure on the
yuan and reflecting global economic weakness, data on Thursday
showed China’s trade surplus narrowed in September for a second
month in a row as growth of exports and imports both fell below
forecasts.”The shrinking trade surplus and easing imported inflation
may reduce some pressure for Beijing to quicken the pace of yuan
appreciation,” said Du Zhengzheng, analyst At China Development
Bank Securities in Beijing.”With exports growing at a slower-than-expected pace, I
think Beijing could slow down the pace of nudging up the yuan in
the coming months for fear of hitting its exports too much,
especially when external demand is weakening.”But the main direction for Beijing’s yuan regime reform
would not be changed, which is to widen the trading band and
guide two-way movements.”In a sign of possible changes ahead, the official China
Securities Journal said on Thursday that the time might be ripe
for China to widen the yuan’s trading band.In line with the spot market, one-year dollar/yuan
non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) rose to 6.4050 bid
in late trade from 6.3710 at the close on Wednesday.They implied yuan depreciation of 0.49 percent in 12 months
from Thursday’s PBOC mid-point, compared with depreciation of
0.04 percent they implied on Wednesday.
